FANTASY GRIDIRON · METHODOLOGY

Matchup ratings

Schedule context, not projections or start/sit advice. Ratings estimate how a defense has changed same-position fantasy production after accounting for the offenses it faced.

Data

nflverse weekly player statistics and schedules. QB, RB, WR, and TE are modeled separately.

Pregame baseline

Each offense-position group's prior six games, exponentially weighted at 0.82 per game; early-season observations blend the same team's prior-season games without future data.

Opponent adjustment

Actual position-group PPR against a defense divided by that offense-position group's pregame baseline, minus one; single-game effects are capped from -100% to +200%.

Rolling weight

Latest six defensive effects, 0.82 exponential decay. Prior-season weight starts at 100% and declines linearly to zero after six current-season games.

No future leakage

Every historical baseline and matchup rating uses only games completed before the game being evaluated.

Matchup percentile

Defense effects are ranked separately for QB, RB, WR, and TE. Higher percentiles mean more favorable fantasy production environments.

Confidence

Low before four current-season games; Medium from four games with at most 50% prior-season weight and stable variance; High from eight games with at most 15% prior weight and variance at or below 0.25.

Schedule swing

Following-two-week average minus the first upcoming matchup percentile; ±0.20 is required for Improving or Worsening.